Underdogs to Favourites: Moneyline Betting

How to Make the Most of Moneyline Betting: From Underdogs to Favourites

Moneyline betting is a popular form of wagering in sports betting that allows bettors to place bets on the outcome of a game or match based on the team or individual expected to win. While many bettors are drawn to backing the favourites, there is also great potential in identifying underdogs and maximising profits. In this article, we will explore the strategies and techniques you can employ to make the most of moneyline betting, whether you’re supporting the underdogs or favourites.

Introduction to Moneyline Betting

Moneyline betting is a popular form of wagering in sports betting that involves predicting the winner of a game or match. In this type of betting, the focus is on selecting the team or player who will come out on top, regardless of the point spread. Understanding how moneyline betting works and grasping the concept of odds is crucial to making informed decisions and maximising your potential returns.

What is Moneyline Betting?

Moneyline betting is a straightforward form of wagering where the odds are expressed in terms of positive or negative numbers. Positive (+) odds indicate the potential profit you can make from a $100 wager, while negative (-) odds represent the amount you need to bet to win $100. For underdogs, positive odds offer the opportunity for larger returns, while favourites with negative odds are considered more likely to win.

How Moneyline Betting Works

In moneyline betting, your goal is to correctly predict the outcome of a game or match. If you wager on the favourite, you must bet more than the potential payout to win $100. Conversely, betting on the underdog requires a smaller wager to potentially win more than the amount bet. Moneyline betting offers flexibility, allowing you to adjust your betting strategy based on your confidence in a particular team or player.

Understanding Odds in Moneyline Betting

Odds in moneyline betting reflect the probability of a team or player winning the game or match. Positive odds indicate the underdog, suggesting a lower probability of winning, while negative odds indicate the favourite, implying a higher likelihood of winning. It’s essential to comprehend how odds are calculated and interpret them in relation to the potential outcome and your betting strategy.

Identifying Underdogs and Favourites in Moneyline Betting

Determining Underdogs and Favourites

Identifying underdogs and favourites in moneyline betting requires a comprehensive analysis of the teams or players involved. Factors such as recent performance, injuries, team dynamics, and historical matchups can influence the perception of a team’s chances of winning. Underdogs are typically assigned positive odds, indicating a lower probability of winning, while favourites are assigned negative odds, indicating a higher likelihood of victory.

Evaluating Factors Affecting Moneyline Odds

To assess the likelihood of an underdog or favourite winning, it’s crucial to consider various factors that can influence moneyline odds. Factors such as team form, home-field advantage, weather conditions, player injuries, and head-to-head records against specific opponents can impact the perception of a team’s strength and affect the assigned odds. Conducting thorough research and analysis can provide valuable insights for identifying favourable betting opportunities.

Analysing Team Strengths and Recent Performance

Analysing team strengths and recent performance is essential in moneyline betting. It involves assessing factors such as offensive and defensive capabilities, playing styles, coaching strategies, and player performances. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of teams or players can help you identify potential underdogs capable of causing upsets or favourites likely to maintain their dominance.

Strategies for Betting on Underdogs

Value Betting on Underdogs

Value betting on underdogs involves identifying instances where the assigned odds do not accurately reflect the underdog’s true chances of winning. By finding undervalued underdogs, you can potentially capitalise on higher odds and maximise your profits. This strategy requires extensive research, identifying factors that may have influenced the odds and evaluating the potential for an upset.

Spotting Upsets and Underestimated Teams

Spotting upsets and underestimated teams is a key strategy in moneyline betting. By carefully analysing matchups, team form, and historical data, you can identify instances where an underdog has a realistic chance of winning, despite being assigned longer odds. Keeping an eye on teams that consistently outperform expectations can help you uncover valuable betting opportunities.

Utilising historical data and trends can provide valuable insights into underdog performance. Analysing past matchups, historical results, and head-to-head records can reveal patterns or trends that may indicate a team’s potential to perform well as an underdog. By recognizing these trends, you can make more informed decisions when betting on underdogs.

Strategies for Betting on Favourites

Assessing Dominant Teams and Consistent Performers

Assessing dominant teams and consistent performers is crucial when betting on favourites. Identify teams or players that have a history of success, strong records, and consistent performance. These favourites are more likely to live up to expectations and deliver positive results. However, it’s important to consider the assigned odds and evaluate the potential risk-reward ratio.

Managing Risks with Heavy Favourites

When betting on heavy favourites, managing risks becomes paramount. While favourites are more likely to win, the potential returns may be relatively low due to the negative odds. To mitigate risk, consider alternative betting options such as combining favourites in parlay bets or exploring teaser bets to enhance potential returns.

Combining Favourites in Parlays and Teasers

Combining favourites in parlay bets or teasers can be a strategic approach to enhance potential returns. Parlay betting involves combining multiple bets into one, where all selections must win for the bet to be successful. Teaser bets allow you to adjust the point spread in favour of the favourite, increasing the chances of winning. These strategies can offer higher payouts when multiple favourites perform as expected.

Bankroll Management and Staking Strategies

Setting a Bankroll and Betting Units

Proper bankroll management is crucial in moneyline betting. Establish a dedicated bankroll for your betting activities and allocate betting units based on your overall bankroll size. By setting clear betting limits, you can minimise the risk of substantial losses and ensure longevity in your betting endeavours.

The Kelly Criterion for Moneyline Betting

The Kelly Criterion is a staking strategy that helps determine the optimal amount to bet based on the perceived value of a bet and the size of your bankroll. It considers the probability of winning and the potential returns to calculate the appropriate betting size, balancing risk and reward. Adhering to the Kelly Criterion can assist in maximising long-term profitability in moneyline betting.

Progressive Staking Systems

Progressive staking systems, such as the Martingale or Fibonacci strategies, involve adjusting the betting size based on the outcome of previous bets. These systems aim to recoup losses and generate profits by increasing or decreasing the bet amount following wins or losses. However, it’s essential to exercise caution when using progressive staking systems and adapt them to your risk tolerance and bankroll.

Research and Analysis for Moneyline Betting

Team and Player Evaluation

Thorough team and player evaluation is essential for successful moneyline betting. Analyse various factors such as player performance, injuries, team chemistry, coaching strategies, and recent form. By conducting comprehensive research, you can gain insights into a team or player’s potential and make more informed betting decisions.

Studying Matchups and Game-Specific Factors

Studying matchups and game-specific factors can provide valuable insights into moneyline betting. Consider aspects such as playing styles, head-to-head records, home-field advantage, weather conditions, and situational factors that may impact the outcome. Evaluating these factors can help you assess the likelihood of a team or player winning and make more accurate predictions.

Utilising Statistical Models and Advanced Analytics

Utilising statistical models and advanced analytics can give you an edge in moneyline betting. Analyse advanced statistics, metrics, and predictive models to uncover patterns and trends that may not be immediately apparent. By leveraging data-driven insights, you can make more precise predictions and identify favourable betting opportunities.

Live Betting and Moneyline Betting

Opportunities in Live Moneyline Betting

Live moneyline betting offers opportunities to capitalise on changing dynamics during a game or match. Monitor the live action, evaluate momentum shifts, and assess the performance of teams or players. By identifying favourable situations, you can place bets in real-time and take advantage of potentially more accurate odds.

In-Game Analysis and Timing

In-game analysis and timing are critical in live moneyline betting. Continuously assess the flow of the game, the performance of teams or players, and any significant events or developments. Timing your bets strategically can help you secure better odds and maximise your potential returns.

Managing Risks and Finding Value in Live Betting

Managing risks and finding value in live betting require a disciplined approach. Set predetermined limits for your live bets and avoid impulsive decisions. Look for opportunities where the odds do not accurately reflect the current state of the game. Finding value in live betting entails identifying situations where the assigned odds present favourable conditions for a winning outcome.

Moneyline Betting on Different Sports

Moneyline Betting in Football

Moneyline betting in football follows the same principles as in other sports. Assess team performance, player injuries, playing styles, and other relevant factors. Consider the different dynamics of football, such as the impact of key positions, defensive strength, and offensive strategies, when evaluating moneyline odds.

Moneyline Betting in Basketball

In basketball, moneyline betting offers opportunities to predict the winner based on team performance, individual player skills, coaching strategies, and other key factors. Consider variables like home-court advantage, team momentum, and recent form when assessing moneyline odds in basketball.

Moneyline Betting in Other Sports

Moneyline betting extends to various other sports, such as baseball, hockey, tennis, and more. Each sport has its unique characteristics and factors to consider when evaluating moneyline odds. Familiarise yourself with the specific dynamics of each sport and conduct thorough research to make informed moneyline bets.

Responsible Gambling in Moneyline Betting

Setting Limits and Controlling Emotions

Responsible gambling is crucial when engaging in moneyline betting. Set clear limits on the amount of money and time you allocate to betting activities. Avoid chasing losses, and do not let emotions drive your betting decisions. Maintain a rational and disciplined approach, and only bet what you can afford to lose.

Recognizing Signs of Problem Gambling

It’s important to recognize signs of problem gambling and seek help if needed. Watch for warning signs such as excessive betting, inability to stop or control betting activities, neglecting other responsibilities, and experiencing financial distress due to gambling. If you or someone you know displays signs of problem gambling, reach out to support organisations for assistance.

Seeking Support and Assistance

If you need support or assistance regarding gambling-related concerns, numerous organisations and helplines are available. Reach out to problem gambling hotlines or seek guidance from responsible gambling organisations. Remember that seeking help is a sign of strength and a crucial step towards responsible gambling.


Moneyline betting provides exciting opportunities to profit from sports betting by predicting the outcome of games or matches. By understanding the fundamentals of moneyline betting, identifying underdogs and favourites, implementing effective strategies, practising responsible gambling, and conducting thorough research and analysis, you can enhance your chances of success. Remember to approach moneyline betting with discipline, manage your bankroll wisely, and continuously refine your betting strategies based on ongoing analysis and learning.